Abstract
Tobacco cultivation remains an economically significant yet controversial agricultural activity in Bangladesh due to its implications for food security, environmental sustainability, and public health. This study examines the economic, institutional, and sustainability dynamics of tobacco cultivation in northern Bangladesh. Primary data were collected from 200 farmers in Lalmonirhat and Rangpur districts, including 100 tobacco farmers and 100 non-tobacco farmers. The analysis integrates farm profitability assessment, a binary logistic regression model of crop choice, Cobb–Douglas production functions for productivity analysis, and a SWOT framework to evaluate the broader strategic position of tobacco farming. The results show that tobacco cultivation generates higher net returns and a stronger benefit–cost ratio than non-tobacco crops, although it requires substantially higher production costs and labor inputs. Logistic regression results indicate that farmers’ crop choices are strongly influenced by institutional and social factors, particularly perceived profitability, farming experience, extension service exposure, and peer influence. Production function estimates reveal decreasing returns to scale in both
tobacco and non-tobacco farming, suggesting that productivity improvements depend more on efficient input management than on increasing input intensity. The SWOT analysis further indicates that while tobacco cultivation benefits from institutional support, assured markets, and perceived profitability, it is simultaneously constrained by high production costs, labor intensity, and health and environmental risks. Overall, the findings suggest that tobacco cultivation persists not only because of its economic returns but also due to institutional arrangements that reduce market uncertainty for farmers. Effective diversification policies therefore require strengthening market stability, extension services, and institutional support for alternative crops such as maize, vegetables, and oilseeds in tobacco-growing regions of Bangladesh.
